What Business Leaders Revealed About the USMCA Review

By Milton Magos

I remember how intense things became during North America’s last big trade shake-up. When NAFTA transitioned to USMCA in 2017, Mexico became the United States’ top trading partner in 2023 and 2024, surpassing China, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Leadership teams scrambled; supply chains were rewritten overnight, and the companies that acted early stayed ahead of everyone else. 

This time, the feeling is familiar – but the setting is different. We recently hosted an event in Mexico City with economists, global logistics leaders and trade strategists who weighed in on the pending USMCA renegotiation. The room was filled with shippers who wanted clarity – they wanted to understand what comes next and how to navigate a landscape where the rules may shift again. 

As I introduced our expert panel, I told the audience, we are witnessing a transition. USMCA is entering its next chapter, and there is a big question mark after that. 

Moments like these define competitive advantage. The companies that turn uncertainty into strategic readiness secure a lead their competitors may never close. That was the atmosphere in the room – a group of leaders intent on pulling ahead.  

Here is what our attendees learned that day. 

Nearshoring Interest Remains Strong,
but Mexico Must Strengthen Its Foundations 

The second theme was about Mexico’s position in the nearshoring wave. The message was optimistic but honest. 

Philippe Gilbert, Managing Director at Arco Consulting Group, noted that foreign investment in Mexico remains significant, particularly in sectors such as automotive, aerospace, electronics and BPO. While many of these companies have been established in Mexico for years, they continue to reinvest and expand their operations. This trend aligns with recent FDI data that highlights sustained activity in the manufacturing sector. 

According to Mexico’s Ministry of Economy, foreign direct investment reached USD 36.8 billion in 2024, with manufacturing representing more than half of total inflows. 

Yet Mexico’s long-term competitiveness will depend on its ability to support the next stage. Gabriel Lozano, Chief Economist at J.P. Morgan, highlighted this point when he said that nearshoring comes in stages. If we do not solve issues like infrastructure and energy, we are not going to be ready for the next wave. Mexico’s industrial electricity demand grew 4.5 percent in 2023, outpacing capacity additions, according to SENER. 

Gabriel Lozano warned, “Mexico is entering a multi-wave nearshoring era – different sectors will surge at different times. The next big wave is digital infrastructure – data centers are becoming the new nearshoring frontier.” 

Mexico is experiencing strong interest, but upgrades to infrastructure, energy reliability and customs processes have not kept pace with that demand. This gap creates tension between nearshoring expectations and real capacity on the ground. 

Philippe Gilbert noted, “Mexico is becoming a multi-industry powerhouse – automotive, electronics, and aerospace clusters are deepening supply chains fast. Capacity is coming online in waves – new industrial parks, rail corridors, ports, and airports will reshape routing and network choices.” 

💡Strategic takeaway: 

Companies should diversify within Mexico, identify high industrial and technology capability clusters and design multi state resilience rather than relying on a single region or assumption. Nearshoring success will belong to the companies that navigate Mexico as a portfolio, not a single bet. 

The Next Eighteen Months Will
Separate the Prepared from The Reactive 

All members of our expert panel converged on one central message – the next eighteen months will be defined by uncertainty, but uncertainty does not need to be destabilizing. It can be a powerful filter that separates reactive teams from resilient ones. 

This is a moment for leadership to pressure test their networks. Not because something will break. But because something might shift. 

Companies should stress test ports and lanes. They should identify alternative corridors early. They should evaluate the health of their customs ecosystem and ensure bilingual operational coverage. They should model tariff and labor mobility scenarios before they arrive. 

Gabriel Lozano noted, “Shippers should plan for multiple outcomes – from amicable trilateral renewal to tense talks, bilateral paths, or even no deal.” 

Penny Naas added, “Coming into 2026, volatility may be less chaotic than this year, but it’s not gone – resilient planning is still mandatory.” 

Uncertainty amplifies the value of preparation. 

💡Strategic takeaway: 

Leadership teams that use this period as a runway to strengthen visibility, optionality, and compliance will move into the next chapter with stability, while others scramble to react. 

A Closing Message from our Mexico Nearshoring
in Transition Event: Readiness Creates Advantage

When we closed the event, the room felt aligned around a simple but powerful truth. 

North America works better when it moves together. Integration has shaped our industries for three decades and undoing that is not realistic. But even in an integrated region, preparation decides who thrives. As I shared in my closing remarks, this region works better when it is integrated. We plan for the opportunities ahead, while staying ready for the challenges that may arise. 

For TRAFFIX, preparation is not a slogan. It is the work. We help companies analyze their lanes, validate their documentation, build scenario playbooks and improve cross border resilience so they can keep moving even as the rules shift. 

The next chapter of North American trade is about to unfold. The companies that prepare now will not only navigate it – they will shape it.