TRAFFIX Bi-Weekly Market Trends

June 22, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Spot rates eased slightly to $3.64 per mile, cooling from the recent peak but still remaining well above last year.

• Tender rejections dipped to 16.6%, down from the previous update but still nearly three times higher than last year. Carriers remain selective, and capacity continues to be difficult to secure in certain lanes.

• Shipping volumes decreased by about 2% compared to two weeks ago, but remain positive year over year at +2.2%. Demand has softened slightly but continues to hold above last year’s levels.

• Diesel declined to $5.00 per gallon, but remains about 40% higher than last year. Fuel costs have eased, though they continue to contribute to elevated transportation expenses.

What This Means for the Market 

Current conditions point to a cooling period following Roadcheck and Memorial Day pressure, not a full market reset. While some indicators have softened, underlying cost pressure remains active and has not shown meaningful signs of relief.

Linehaul spot rates continue to run above contract rates, meaning last-minute freight is still priced higher than planned contract freight. The gap between spot and contract rates has narrowed, but primarily because spot rates eased while contract rates moved higher. This suggests contract pricing is beginning to catch up to the elevated spot market rather than the market fully resetting.

Tender rejections remain elevated. Even with the slight dip, rejection rates near 17% indicate that carriers continue to hold leverage and are not accepting every contracted load.

Volumes are also still holding above last year. Even with a modest decline from two weeks ago, demand has not fallen enough to meaningfully loosen capacity.

For shippers, the main takeaway is that cost pressure remains active. The market may not be climbing as quickly as it was earlier in June, but it is also not returning to normal yet.

Areas to Watch 

• Spot rates vs. contract rates: Linehaul spot rates remain above contract rates. If this trend continues, contract pricing may keep moving higher as carriers push for rates that better reflect current market conditions.
• Routing guide performance: Track primary carrier acceptance by lane. If routing guides begin failing more often, it may signal that contracted rates are below the current market.
• Tender rejection levels: Rejections near 17% show that carriers still have leverage. A continued decline would suggest improving balance, while another increase could add renewed pressure.
• Volume changes by lane or region: Watch lanes tied to seasonal demand, import activity, or tighter regional capacity. Localized pressure may continue even if the broader market cools.
• Diesel costs: Fuel prices have moved lower, but diesel remains elevated year over year. Any rebound could quickly add pressure to all-in transportation costs, especially on longer-haul moves.

Strategic Considerations 

• Review high-risk lanes before they become urgent: Identify lanes with repeated carrier declines, late coverage, or high spot exposure. These should be reviewed first for backup capacity or pricing adjustments.
• Protect service-critical freight earlier in the week: Shipments tied to production, customer commitments, or inventory replenishment should be covered earlier where possible. Waiting too long may increase exposure to spot-market pricing.
• Build more backup options for tight markets: Add secondary carriers or spot options on lanes showing repeated routing guide failures. The goal is to avoid last-minute coverage decisions when rates are highest.
• Use flexibility as a cost-control tool: Flexible pickup and delivery windows can make freight more attractive to carriers and help avoid the most expensive coverage periods.
• Keep budget assumptions conservative: Rates have eased slightly, but the market remains tight. Planning should assume elevated transportation costs through the summer rather than a quick return to normal.

June 8, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Over the past two weeks, spot rates climbed to $3.71 per mile, continuing the upward trend even as the immediate Memorial Day surge began to ease.

• Tender rejections increased to 17.09%, up nearly 2 percentage points from two weeks ago. Carriers remain selective following the holiday period, making capacity more difficult for shippers to secure.

• Shipping volumes rose 14% compared to two weeks ago and are now nearly 4% higher than last year. Freight demand remains healthy and aligns with the typical increase in activity seen after Memorial Day.

• Diesel declined slightly to $5.35 per gallon, but remains more than 55% higher than last year. Fuel costs have eased modestly, though they continue to contribute to elevated transportation expenses.

What This Means for the Market 

The market remains under pressure from a combination of regulatory challenges, broader economic uncertainty, and continued capacity constraints.

One of the strongest indicators of current market conditions is that linehaul spot rates remain above contract rates. This is a pattern not seen since the COVID freight cycle and suggests that capacity remains tighter than many expected following the holiday period.

Last-minute freight continues to cost more than planned contract freight. When shippers need coverage outside of their contracted carrier network, they are still paying a premium, reflecting ongoing pressure in the spot market.

Tender rejections provide another important signal. With rejection rates above 17%, carriers are declining more contracted freight in favor of higher-paying opportunities elsewhere. As more freight shifts into the spot market, pricing pressure continues to build.

At the same time, freight volumes remain strong. Demand is increasing while available capacity remains constrained, preventing rates from resetting quickly and keeping market conditions firm heading into mid-June.

Areas to Watch 

• Spot rates vs. contract rates: Linehaul spot rates continue to exceed contract rates. If this trend persists, additional contract pricing pressure is likely to follow.
• Tender rejection levels: Rejection rates above 17% indicate that carriers continue to hold leverage in the market. Capacity has improved from holiday disruptions but remains far from fully balanced.
• Diesel costs: Fuel prices moved lower this period, but diesel remains historically elevated. Any renewed increase could quickly add pressure to transportation budgets. 

Strategic Considerations 

• Prioritize critical freight early: Shipments tied to production schedules, customer commitments, or inventory replenishment should be secured earlier in the week to reduce exposure to higher spot market costs.
• Monitor high-risk lanes closely: Lanes experiencing repeated carrier declines should be treated as potential problem areas. Establish backup carrier options before capacity becomes more constrained.
• Plan around sustained market strength: While rates may soften modestly from holiday highs, current indicators suggest elevated transportation costs could persist through June.
• Use flexibility where possible: Flexible pickup and delivery schedules can help shippers avoid the most constrained periods and reduce exposure to peak market pricing.

May 26, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Over the past two weeks, spot rates jumped to $3.45 per mile. Rates are now nearly 47% higher than last year and sitting near the highest levels seen in recent years. 

• Tender rejections climbed to 15.7%, the highest level in four years. Carriers pulled back during DOT Week, making it harder for shippers to secure capacity. 

• Shipping volumes improved 4.3% compared to two weeks ago and remain almost 8% higher than last year. Demand is still increasing, even as securing capacity becomes more difficult. 

• Diesel eased slightly to $5.60 per gallon, but remains more than 60% higher than last year. Fuel continues adding pressure to already elevated transportation costs. 

What This Means for the Market 

The market moved from tight to tighter over the past two weeks. What we are seeing now is the combined effect of DOT Week, summer freight activity, and continued fuel-driven pricing pressure. 

DOT Week was expected to impact capacity, and it did. Fewer trucks were available, carriers became more selective, and spot rates jumped more than 10% week over week while rejection rates moved above 15%. 

What stands out now is that rates are not quickly backing down after DOT Week. Instead, they are remaining elevated and continuing to climb. With Memorial Day adding another capacity disruption, the market could move toward some of the highest spot rates seen in recent years. 

Spot linehaul rates temporarily moved above contract linehaul rates for the first time since 2022. In simple terms, last-minute freight became more expensive than planned contract freight. That is usually a strong signal that the market is tightening quickly. 

Shipping activity remains healthy, but truck availability is becoming increasingly constrained. DOT Week temporarily pulled capacity out of the market while freight demand continued moving higher. When more loads compete for fewer trucks, rates rise quickly. 

With Memorial Day, produce season, and summer freight activity ahead, capacity could remain tight over the coming weeks. 

Areas to Watch 

• Memorial Day capacity disruption: The holiday weekend could create another round of tight capacity as carrier availability drops and shipping schedules shift. 
• Produce season acceleration: Seasonal freight is building into June, pulling trucks into active produce markets and tightening capacity across nearby lanes. 
• Spot rates vs. contract rates: Spot linehaul moving above contract linehaul is a major warning sign. If this trend continues, additional contract pricing pressure will likely follow. 
• Diesel remains a cost risk: Fuel dipped slightly this week, but diesel prices remain extremely high compared to last year and are unlikely to provide meaningful cost relief in the near term. 

Strategic Considerations 

• Separate urgent freight from flexible freight: Lock in coverage early for shipments tied to customer commitments, production needs, or inventory replenishment. For freight with more flexible delivery timing, consider holding shipments until capacity conditions improve rather than paying peak spot rates during tighter weeks. 
• Review lanes with frequent carrier fall-off: If primary carriers have been declining more loads, treat those lanes as higher risk. Consider backup carrier options or earlier tendering before market conditions tighten further. 
• Plan budgets around a higher rate floor: Rates may soften slightly after DOT Week, but the market is unlikely to return to earlier pricing levels quickly. Summer transportation planning should assume elevated pricing conditions continue through June. 

May 11, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Over the past two weeks, spot rates have held around $3.00 per mile, staying near the $3 mark for the sixth straight week and remaining more than 40% higher than this time last year.

• Tender rejections moved back above 13%, showing that carriers remain selective and are turning down freight more frequently, signaling that capacity is still tight.

• Shipping volumes softened slightly over the past week, down approximately 2.8% week over week, but remained about 7% higher year over year.

• Fuel costs continue to rise. Diesel climbed again to $5.64 per gallon, adding further pressure to already elevated transportation costs.

What This Means for the Market 

The market is not loosening. Instead, conditions appear to be stabilizing before the next upward move.

Even with a slight dip in shipping volumes, rejection rates increased and spot rates held firm around the $3.00 mark. That combination matters because it shows that capacity remains limited, preventing any meaningful rate relief.

At the same time, contract rates continue to rise as carriers decline freight at previously agreed pricing. As more freight shifts into the spot market, higher pricing continues to reinforce overall transportation cost pressure. This is no longer a short term spike. It reflects a broader increase in the underlying cost of moving freight.

Freight demand also remains uneven across the country. Some markets are softening while others continue to tighten. Produce season is adding additional pressure across key lanes, as more trucks are pulled into produce heavy regions, reducing available capacity for other freight.

With DOT Week and Memorial Day approaching, the market has multiple near term catalysts that could tighten conditions even further.

For shippers, this means that small dips in volume should not be interpreted as rate relief. The market remains expensive, capacity remains selective, and pricing volatility could increase in the coming weeks.

Areas to Watch 

• DOT Week could tighten capacity quickly: Next week’s DOT inspection blitz typically removes trucks from the road temporarily, reducing available capacity and increasing spot market pressure.
• Memorial Day demand surge: The holiday period often creates another wave of tightening as shipping demand rises while carrier availability shrinks.
• Produce season expansion: As produce harvests spread into additional regions, truck availability could become increasingly uneven across the country.
• Fuel costs remain elevated: Diesel continues climbing, keeping pressure on total transportation spend even before linehaul increases are factored in.

Strategic Considerations 

• Do not expect rates to fall back quickly: Current conditions suggest the market is settling into a higher pricing range heading into summer.
• Prepare for short term volatility over the next month: DOT Week, Memorial Day, and produce season shifts could create rapid changes in truck availability across key lanes.
• Protect capacity where possible: As carriers become more selective, maintaining strong routing guide performance will become increasingly important.

April 13, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Over the past two weeks, spot rates have held steady at approximately $3.09 per mile, remaining near recent highs and about 30% above last year’s levels. 

• Tender rejections dropped slightly to around 13% (from ~14%), meaning carriers are accepting more loads than in previous weeks. However, rejection rates remain elevated compared to last year, indicating that capacity is still tight. 

• Shipping volumes fell about 5% week-over-week, but are still approximately 8% higher than last year. This suggests a short-term dip rather than a broader decline in demand. 

• Fuel costs continue to rise. Diesel has climbed to $5.64 per gallon, adding further pressure to total transportation costs. 

What This Means for the Market 

The market is showing some early signs of easing, but not enough to shift pricing. 

Even with a slight drop in volumes and fewer rejected loads, rates have not moved down. This reinforces that pricing is not being driven by fuel alone. The underlying cost of moving freight remains high, and carriers continue to hold the advantage. 

Data trends support this. While rejection rates dipped slightly, they remain elevated overall. At the same time, both spot and contract rates are holding at multi-year highs, indicating that base freight pricing is sustaining current cost levels, not just fuel. 

For shippers, this means that even when demand softens week to week, costs are not declining alongside it. Fuel is adding pressure, but it is not the primary reason rates remain elevated. 

Areas to Watch 

• Small market shifts are not lowering costs: If diesel remains elevated, total transportation costs are likely to stay high in the near term. 
• Fuel is adding to already elevated costs: Diesel continues to rise, increasing total transportation spend beyond base rates. 
• Demand remains stronger than last year: Short-term fluctuations are expected, but overall shipping activity continues to trend higher year-over-year. 
• Regional shifts in volume: While total volumes dipped, activity is shifting across regions, with some markets tightening while others ease, limiting any broad relief. 

Strategic Considerations 

• Do not expect immediate rate relief from short-term volume dips. The market remains elevated, with underlying freight pricing – not just fuel – driving cost pressures. 
• Protect your routing guide. Slightly lower rejection rates help, but spot exposure remains expensive. Proactive planning is still critical. Learn more 
• Budget beyond linehaul costs. Fuel continues to be a major driver of total transportation spend, not just a surcharge.  

March 30, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Spot shipping rates jumped again this week (+3.5%), reaching another post-COVID high and now sitting about 31% higher than last year. 

• Tender rejections climbed back above 14%, showing that capacity is still tight, and carriers are becoming more selective. 

• Shipping activity remains strong, with requests up about 8% compared to last year, continuing the steady demand recovery trend. 

• Fuel costs continue to rise. Diesel has reached $5.38 per gallon, increasing sharply week-over-week and adding significant cost pressure to trucking. 

What This Means for the Market 

The market is heating up again. Demand is rising, carriers are rejecting more loads, and spot rates are climbing together – a clear sign that conditions are tightening, not easing. Carriers hold a leverage of choosing, making some contracted shipments harder to cover and increasing the risk of higher spot costs. At the same time, fuel is pushing up total shipping costs, not just surcharges, bringing spot and contract rates closer together. The takeaway: costs are rising, and opportunities to lock in lower rates are starting to narrow. 

Areas to Watch 

• Spot rates rising. If diesel stays elevated, total rates are likely to keep rising in the near term. 

• More contract freight at risk of falling through. With rejection rates reaching a high, some shipments may be harder to cover as planned. 

• Spring demand building on top of fuel pressure. Freight volumes are already trending higher, and seasonal activity could tighten capacity further in the weeks ahead. 

Strategic Considerations 

• Book earlier where you can. Early planning can help reduce last-minute spot exposure. 

• Review budgets for higher transportation costs. Fuel is pushing up the full cost of shipping, not just the surcharge line. 

• Stay close to core carriers on key lanes. When the market tightens, strong carrier communication matters more than ever. 

• Be careful about assuming rates will level off soon. Right now, demand, rejections, and fuel are all pointing in the upward direction.