TRAFFIX Bi-Weekly Market Trends

May 11, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Over the past two weeks, spot rates have held around $3.00 per mile, staying near the $3 mark for the sixth straight week and remaining more than 40% higher than this time last year.

• Tender rejections moved back above 13%, showing that carriers remain selective and are turning down freight more frequently, signaling that capacity is still tight.

• Shipping volumes softened slightly over the past week, down approximately 2.8% week over week, but remained about 7% higher year over year.

• Fuel costs continue to rise. Diesel climbed again to $5.64 per gallon, adding further pressure to already elevated transportation costs.

What This Means for the Market 

The market is not loosening. Instead, conditions appear to be stabilizing before the next upward move.

Even with a slight dip in shipping volumes, rejection rates increased and spot rates held firm around the $3.00 mark. That combination matters because it shows that capacity remains limited, preventing any meaningful rate relief.

At the same time, contract rates continue to rise as carriers decline freight at previously agreed pricing. As more freight shifts into the spot market, higher pricing continues to reinforce overall transportation cost pressure. This is no longer a short term spike. It reflects a broader increase in the underlying cost of moving freight.

Freight demand also remains uneven across the country. Some markets are softening while others continue to tighten. Produce season is adding additional pressure across key lanes, as more trucks are pulled into produce heavy regions, reducing available capacity for other freight.

With DOT Week and Memorial Day approaching, the market has multiple near term catalysts that could tighten conditions even further.

For shippers, this means that small dips in volume should not be interpreted as rate relief. The market remains expensive, capacity remains selective, and pricing volatility could increase in the coming weeks.

Areas to Watch 

• DOT Week could tighten capacity quickly: Next week’s DOT inspection blitz typically removes trucks from the road temporarily, reducing available capacity and increasing spot market pressure.
• Memorial Day demand surge: The holiday period often creates another wave of tightening as shipping demand rises while carrier availability shrinks.
• Produce season expansion: As produce harvests spread into additional regions, truck availability could become increasingly uneven across the country.
• Fuel costs remain elevated: Diesel continues climbing, keeping pressure on total transportation spend even before linehaul increases are factored in.

Strategic Considerations 

• Do not expect rates to fall back quickly: Current conditions suggest the market is settling into a higher pricing range heading into summer.
• Prepare for short term volatility over the next month: DOT Week, Memorial Day, and produce season shifts could create rapid changes in truck availability across key lanes.
• Protect capacity where possible: As carriers become more selective, maintaining strong routing guide performance will become increasingly important.

April 13, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Over the past two weeks, spot rates have held steady at approximately $3.09 per mile, remaining near recent highs and about 30% above last year’s levels. 

• Tender rejections dropped slightly to around 13% (from ~14%), meaning carriers are accepting more loads than in previous weeks. However, rejection rates remain elevated compared to last year, indicating that capacity is still tight. 

• Shipping volumes fell about 5% week-over-week, but are still approximately 8% higher than last year. This suggests a short-term dip rather than a broader decline in demand. 

• Fuel costs continue to rise. Diesel has climbed to $5.64 per gallon, adding further pressure to total transportation costs. 

What This Means for the Market 

The market is showing some early signs of easing, but not enough to shift pricing. 

Even with a slight drop in volumes and fewer rejected loads, rates have not moved down. This reinforces that pricing is not being driven by fuel alone. The underlying cost of moving freight remains high, and carriers continue to hold the advantage. 

Data trends support this. While rejection rates dipped slightly, they remain elevated overall. At the same time, both spot and contract rates are holding at multi-year highs, indicating that base freight pricing is sustaining current cost levels, not just fuel. 

For shippers, this means that even when demand softens week to week, costs are not declining alongside it. Fuel is adding pressure, but it is not the primary reason rates remain elevated. 

Areas to Watch 

• Small market shifts are not lowering costs: If diesel remains elevated, total transportation costs are likely to stay high in the near term. 
• Fuel is adding to already elevated costs: Diesel continues to rise, increasing total transportation spend beyond base rates. 
• Demand remains stronger than last year: Short-term fluctuations are expected, but overall shipping activity continues to trend higher year-over-year. 
• Regional shifts in volume: While total volumes dipped, activity is shifting across regions, with some markets tightening while others ease, limiting any broad relief. 

Strategic Considerations 

• Do not expect immediate rate relief from short-term volume dips. The market remains elevated, with underlying freight pricing – not just fuel – driving cost pressures. 
• Protect your routing guide. Slightly lower rejection rates help, but spot exposure remains expensive. Proactive planning is still critical. Learn more 
• Budget beyond linehaul costs. Fuel continues to be a major driver of total transportation spend, not just a surcharge.  

March 30, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Spot shipping rates jumped again this week (+3.5%), reaching another post-COVID high and now sitting about 31% higher than last year. 

• Tender rejections climbed back above 14%, showing that capacity is still tight, and carriers are becoming more selective. 

• Shipping activity remains strong, with requests up about 8% compared to last year, continuing the steady demand recovery trend. 

• Fuel costs continue to rise. Diesel has reached $5.38 per gallon, increasing sharply week-over-week and adding significant cost pressure to trucking. 

What This Means for the Market 

The market is heating up again. Demand is rising, carriers are rejecting more loads, and spot rates are climbing together – a clear sign that conditions are tightening, not easing. Carriers hold a leverage of choosing, making some contracted shipments harder to cover and increasing the risk of higher spot costs. At the same time, fuel is pushing up total shipping costs, not just surcharges, bringing spot and contract rates closer together. The takeaway: costs are rising, and opportunities to lock in lower rates are starting to narrow. 

Areas to Watch 

• Spot rates rising. If diesel stays elevated, total rates are likely to keep rising in the near term. 

• More contract freight at risk of falling through. With rejection rates reaching a high, some shipments may be harder to cover as planned. 

• Spring demand building on top of fuel pressure. Freight volumes are already trending higher, and seasonal activity could tighten capacity further in the weeks ahead. 

Strategic Considerations 

• Book earlier where you can. Early planning can help reduce last-minute spot exposure. 

• Review budgets for higher transportation costs. Fuel is pushing up the full cost of shipping, not just the surcharge line. 

• Stay close to core carriers on key lanes. When the market tightens, strong carrier communication matters more than ever. 

• Be careful about assuming rates will level off soon. Right now, demand, rejections, and fuel are all pointing in the upward direction.