TRAFFIX Bi-Weekly Market Trends

March 30, 2026 Update

Market Overview 

• Spot shipping rates jumped again this week (+3.5%), reaching another post-COVID high and now sitting about 31% higher than last year. 

• Tender rejections climbed back above 14%, showing that capacity is still tight, and carriers are becoming more selective. 

• Shipping activity remains strong, with requests up about 8% compared to last year, continuing the steady demand recovery trend. 

• Fuel costs continue to rise. Diesel has reached $5.38 per gallon, increasing sharply week-over-week and adding significant cost pressure to trucking. 

What This Means for the Market 

The market is heating up again. Demand is rising, carriers are rejecting more loads, and spot rates are climbing together – a clear sign that conditions are tightening, not easing. Carriers hold a leverage of choosing, making some contracted shipments harder to cover and increasing the risk of higher spot costs. At the same time, fuel is pushing up total shipping costs, not just surcharges, bringing spot and contract rates closer together. The takeaway: costs are rising, and opportunities to lock in lower rates are starting to narrow. 

Areas to Watch 

• Spot rates rising. If diesel stays elevated, total rates are likely to keep rising in the near term. 

• More contract freight at risk of falling through. With rejection rates reaching a high, some shipments may be harder to cover as planned. 

• Spring demand building on top of fuel pressure. Freight volumes are already trending higher, and seasonal activity could tighten capacity further in the weeks ahead. 

Strategic Considerations 

• Book earlier where you can. Early planning can help reduce last-minute spot exposure. 

• Review budgets for higher transportation costs. Fuel is pushing up the full cost of shipping, not just the surcharge line. 

• Stay close to core carriers on key lanes. When the market tightens, strong carrier communication matters more than ever. 

• Be careful about assuming rates will level off soon. Right now, demand, rejections, and fuel are all pointing in the upward direction.